BERLIN, June 29 — Germany could reinstate compulsory military service as early as next year, a senior MP has signalled. The claim is straightforward. The mechanics behind it are anything but.
The proposal comes from a member of the Bundestag’s defence committee, who argues that the country’s current all-volunteer force is insufficient for modern deterrence. The catch, on closer reading, is that no formal legislative text has been tabled, and the timeline — “next year” — remains aspirational rather than locked in.
Germany suspended conscription in 2011, shifting to a professional army. That decision, at the time, was sold as a modernisation move, trimming costs and aligning with NATO’s post-Cold War posture. The calculus has shifted.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has redrawn threat assessments across Europe, and Berlin’s own Zeitenwende — the “turning point” Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced in 2022 — has struggled to translate rhetorical urgency into recruitment numbers. The Bundeswehr has faced persistent personnel shortfalls.
The volunteer model, on paper, was meant to attract motivated specialists. In practice, it has left units under-strength and overstretched. Bringing back conscription would, in theory, plug that gap.
But the devil is in the details: training capacity, barracks space, legal exemptions, and the political cost of compelling young Germans into uniform. The senior MP’s comments are not government policy. They are a trial balloon, floated ahead of what is expected to be a heated debate in the autumn.
Follow the money: conscription is cheap per head — draftees are paid far less than volunteers — but the upfront investment in infrastructure and instructors is substantial. A defence budget already under pressure from inflation and procurement overruns would need to absorb that hit.
Public opinion is another variable. Polling has shown a majority of Germans oppose a return to mandatory service, particularly among younger voters. The catch for proponents is that they must sell a policy that restricts personal freedom at a time when the government is already asking citizens to accept higher energy costs and tighter fiscal discipline.
What to watch next: whether the defence ministry issues a formal feasibility study, and whether the ruling coalition — already fractious on spending and Ukraine aid — can agree on a timeline. If conscription does return in 2027, it will not be because of a single MP’s push.
It will be because the arithmetic of deterrence, on Berlin’s current reading, no longer adds up without it.
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